不确定性条件下资本市场投资预期收益模型探析

On the Expected Return Model in Capital Market under Uncertainty

在现实经济活动中特别是在资本市场投资中,人们对将来的情况很难准确地预测到,他们所知道的最多只不过是在未来各种各样的收益状况下所可能产生的结果。也就是说,未来经济活动特别是资本市场投资活动具有不确定性。由于不确定性的预期的作用和影响,在不确定性条件下的资本市场投资预期收益模型与在确定性条件下的收益模型存在着一定的偏差。只有减少人们对经济不确定性的预期,才能使资本市场投资需求旺盛。

It is very difficult for people to make an accurate forecast a- bout the future under the present economic condition especially in capital market. They can know all the possible results of returns in the future at most. That is to say, there is uncertainty about the future economic behaviors especially about the investments in capital market. Because of the effects of uncertainty, there are differences between the expected return model with uncertainty and the return model with certainty. Only when the economic uncertainty is reduced, can we bring about a flourishing capital market.