基于马尔柯夫过程的区域土地利用结构预测研究——以江苏省昆山市为例

The forecast of land use structure based on Markov process——A case study of Kunshan City

依据昆山市1994至2002年土地利用变更调查数据,采用马尔柯夫方法对其土地利用结构演变进行了模拟,并对未来10年其土地利用结构的演变趋势进行了预测。结果表明,在编制土地利用规划时,利用马尔柯夫过程对土地利用结构进行定量预测是一种可行的方法;未来10年昆山的土地利用结构将保持建设用地持续增加、耕地持续减少的趋势,但其变动幅度将逐渐趋向平稳。在此基础上,提出了改善土地生态环境、提高建设用地集约度的建议。

A simulation of land use structure of Kunshan City with Markov method based on the updated data of land use investigation is established. Then, a forecast of land use structure in following ten years with Markov method is completed. The study shows that using Markov process to quantificationally forecast land use structure in constituting land use planning is a feasible method, and the land use structure of Kunshan City will continue the trend of building land continual increasing while the cultivated land continual decreasing in the following ten years. Therefore, the suggestion that land entironment and the intensivity of building land should be improved is put forward.