新中国外债研究的几个问题

On Some Research Questions regarding the External Debt since the Founding of the P.R.China

从1950年新中国向前苏联举借第一笔总数为30000万美元的外债起,截至2004年底,中国外债余额折合美元为2285.96亿。外债对建设有中国特色社会主义事业起到了巨大作用,成为新时期社会主义建设事业的重要支柱。但与此同时,我国外债也存在着规模扩大过快、使用效益不高、管理散乱、风险较大等问题。随着借用外债成为我国经济发展中非常重要的因素,学术界对新中国外债的研究也取得了一定的成绩。但与对近代中国外债的研究相比,对新中国外债的研究显得比较欠缺,权威性的研究成果不多,其主要原因是对浩繁的新中国外债史料至今尚未组织专门力量进行系统的整理,使广大的专家、学者无法对这一课题展开深入的研究。为实现党的十六大提出的全面建设小康社会的目标,如何进一步扩大对外部资金的利用,已是建设有中国特色社会主义所必须回答的问题,因而有必要对新中国外债问题进行全面、系统的研究。

From the first external debt amounting to 3 hundred million US dollars from the former Soviet Union in 1950 to the end of 2004, the balance of China＇s external debt totaled up to 228.596 billion US dollars. The history of New China＇s external debt can be divided into two periods with 1978 as the dividing year, in which the Third Plenary Session of the Eleventh Central Committee of the Communist Party of China was held. The first period of external debt of New China ranged from its founding in 1949 to the said Third Plenary Session in 1978. This period can be further divided into two stages. The first stage lasted from 1949 to 1968 when the repayment of all the internal and external debts was completed. It witnessed difficulties and hardships of borrowing money and being compelled to pay the debts. From 1950 to 1957 China and the Soviet Union signed the 13 loan agreements amounting to 6.84 billions old rubles （1.3 billion new rubles, or 1.71 billion US dollars） in total. Coupled with the loan for importing the technique, equipments and 156 projects for construction, as well as that for purchasing the military equipments and supplies from the Soviet Union during the War to Resist US Aggression and Aid Korea, the total amount of debts for this period was 7.4 billion old rubles （1.406 billion new rubles, or 1.85 billion US dollars）. The annual interest of the loan varied from 1% to 2.5%, and its payback period was from 2 to 10 years. In addition, China signed the agreements with Poland, Czech, and Democratic Germany, introducing complete construction projects. But after 1960, the good fellowship between China and Soviet in the 1950s began to deteriorate, break up and even come into confrontation and conflicts, owing to the Soviet chauvinism and China＇s “ultra-Left” internal and external policy. The Soviet Union stopped halfway the loan and the technical and personnel support for China, terminated the signed contracts, withdrew the experts, and pressed for the debts in advance. By withstanding the intense pressure and with the whole nation being thrifty to survive the financial pinch, the Chinese government managed to repay the overall debt by 1965. The second stage covered 10 years from 1968 through 1978, with neither internal nor external debts. From 1978 till now was China＇s second period for debt financing. With 1992 as the dividing year when Dong Xiaoping made a southern inspection tour, this period falls into two stages： The first stage from 1979 to through 1991 was for raising loans, and the second stage from November 1979, in which the Belgian government promised to loan China 3 hundred million BF （8 million US dollars）, to 1992, saw the provision to China ofloans from over 20 countries, including Japan, Italy, France, the U.K., the Netherlands, and Federal Germany, and of such financial institutions as the World Bank, Asian Development Bank, IMF, International Fund for Agricultural Development, and Nordic Investment Bank. From 1987 on, China went to issue bonds and shares in the capital markets of the United States, Japan, Europe, Singapore and the Hong Kong region. The debt of this stage features the following characteristics ： （1） its majority being the mid- or long-term debt ; （2） its credit period being rather long, for example, 30 years plus 10 years＇ grace period on average; （3） its low interest with no interest for each new loan; and （4） Its wide range of application, covering basic industries and mainstay sectors. The second stage from 1992 till now, in which the external debt has increased at an annual rate of 15% , exceeding the growth rate of GDP in the same period, features the following characteristics： （1） the rapid growth of debt; （2） the main currency being U.S. dollars and Japanese yen, making up over 4/5 of the total debt; （3） decrease in the proportion of official preferential loan and increase by 50% in the proportion of international commercial loan; and （4） the risk indicators of external debt （debt service ratio and debt ratio） being basically within the safety limit. In conclusion, the external debt of New China has done a great job for the socialist construction, including adjusting the industrial structure, boosting economic take-off, and upgrading China to the No. 1 place among the developing countries and the No. 6 place worldwide in terms of the economic aggregate quantity. It is highly necessary to sort out historical materials about and further the research into China＇s external debt, which would provide a clear and reasonable answer to China＇s socialist construction.