汇率与中国对外出口关系的实证研究

Emprical Analysis on the Relations between Exchange Rate and China’s Foreign Export

运用Granger因果检验以及协整、误差修正模型、多元回归模型等计量经济学分析方法,对中国内资企业出口与汇率的关系进行实证分析,得出的主要结论是:实际有效汇率与中国企业内资出口间没有因果关系,并且无论在长期和短期实际有效汇率的变动都不能有效地解释内资出口的变动,说明人民币汇率的变化对内资出口影响非常小。国际上因为贸易逆差而指责中国的汇率政策,其理由是不充分的。

Using several econometric analysis methods such as Granger Causality Test, cointegration and error correct model, and multiple regression model etc., this paper gives an empirical analysis on the relation between Chinese domestic enterprises＇ export and exchange rate. And the conclusions are as follows： there doesn＇t exist causality between real effective exchange rate and Chinese domestic enterprises＇ export, and the variation of real effective exchange rate can＇t explain the variation of domestic enterprises＇ export effectively either in the short or the long run. That means the variation the exchange rate of RMB has little influence on domestic enterprises＇ export. Rebuking China＇s trade deficit because of China＇s exchanlze rate policy has inadeauate reasons.