安徽及其周边地区小震活动水平统计预测

Statistical Prediction of Small Earthquake Activities in Anhui and Its Neighboring Regions

依据地质构造块体的不同,将安徽及其周边地区分为华北、黄海和华南三个地震区。利用马尔可夫模型对三个地震区的中小地震活动水平进行统计预测,结果显示,一年之内华北地震区一般会发生M s≥3.0级地震,有可能发生M s≥3.5级地震,而发生M s≥4.0级地震的可能性却不大。黄海地震区一年内一般会发生M s≥3.5级地震,有可能发生M s≥4.0级地震,发生M s≥4.5级地震的可能性不大。华南地震区一年内一般会发生M s≥2.5级地震,有可能发生M s≥3.0级地震,但发生M s≥3.5级地震的可能性不大。

In terms of different tectonic block, Anhui and its neighboring regions can be divided into three earthquake regions, North China, Yellow Sea and South China earthquake regions. Based on the Markoff model, the small earthquake activities in the three regions are predicted statistically. The results are as follows： within one year, in North China the probability Ms≥3.0 is between 0.8 and 1.0 and the probability Ms≥3. 5 is between 0. 5 and 0. 8, but the probability Ms≥4.0 is lower than 0. 5; in Yellow Sea the probability Ms≥3.5 is between 0. 8 and 1.0 and the probability Ms≥4.0 is between 0. 5 and 0. 8, but the probability Ms≥4.5 is lower than 0. 5; in South China the probability Ms≥2.5 is between 0. 8 and 1.0 and the probability Ms≥3.0 is between 0. 5 and 0. 8, but the probability Ms≥3.5 is lower than 0. 5.