微小按蚊密度评价灰色模型研究

Study on a Grey Model for Evaluation of Anopheles minimus Density

目的借助气象、环境与遥感监测指标建立微小按蚊密度评价模型.方法以云南省10县27乡为研究现场,收集1984～1993年各乡气象、环境、遥感与蚊媒监测资料.对18 项指标与微小按蚊密度的关系进行灰色关联度分析,按照灰色阈值筛选评价指标,合成变量E,研究变量E与微小按蚊密度的关系,从而建立微小按蚊密度评价灰色模型.结果以0.70灰色阈值筛选微小按蚊密度评价指标并排列灰色关联序:干季月平均温度>干季最低温度>湿季最低温度>湿季归一化植被指数(NDVI)>湿季月平均温度>水田面积占耕地面积的比例>干季月最高温度>湿季月最高温度.微小按蚊密度灰色评价模型为:y=0.0578 e0.0780(8X10′+7X12′+6X11′+5X15′+4X9′+3X4′+2X8′+1X7′)模型判定的正确率为92.0%,e0.5=18%,最大相对误差为-15%,最小相对误差为 4%,平均相对误差为 21%.结论借助微小按蚊密度评价模型可以对疟疾疫点微小按蚊密度进行拟合评价.

Objective To establish Anopheles minimus density evaluation model based on climate, environmental and remote sensing data. Methods 27 townships in 10 counties of Ynnnan Province were chosen as field spots. Data on climate, environment, remote sensing and An. minimus density were collected from 1984 to 1993. Grey correlation analysis was carried out to study the relationship of 18 indices with An. minimus density. E variable was developed and its relation to the An. minimus density was analyzed to establish an evaluation model. Results Eight indices were selected based on a grey threshold 0. 70： Dry season average temperature〉dry season temperaturemin〉wet season temperaturemin〉wet season NDVI〉wet season average temperature〉the ratio of paddy field in total arable land〉dry season temperaturemax〉wet season temperature The An. minimus density evaluation model was derived as follows： Y=0.0578e^0.0780（8X10＇-7X12＇-6X11＇＋5X15＇＋4X9＇-3X4＇-2X8＇＋1X7＇）The correct rate of evaluation by the model was 92.0%. e0.5 = 18 %, with an average relative error of 21%. Conclusion A quasi-evaluation on the An. minimus density can be made by applying the grey model.