近42a来青海湖水位变化的影响因子及其趋势预测

Impacting Factors and Changing Tendency of Water Level in Qinghai Lake in Recent 42 Years

近42a来青海湖水位的持续性下降,且其年内变化特征明显;年平均入湖流量、湖面年降水量和年蒸发量均呈现减少趋势,20世纪90年代以后减少明显;入湖流量、湖面蒸发量和降水量特别是其上年值对当年湖泊水位影响显著,据此建立的青海湖水位模型可对以上因子对水位的影响进行模拟和预测;未来10a青海湖水位仍以下降为主。

The water level in Qinghai Lake has been declining in recent 42 years; correlatively, the precipi- tation on lake, the mean annual inflow and the evaporation of lake have been decreasing, especially since 1990s. Correlation analysis shows that the inflow, the evaporation and the precipitation amount in the past year have close relation with the water level of Qinghai Lake, by which we establish the model of water level in Qinghai lake to simulate and forecast those close factors. The result shows that the water level in Qinghai lake will still decline in the next decade.