摘要
本文选取区域水资源短缺风险程度的风险率、脆弱性、可恢复性、重现期和风险度作为评价指标,研究了水资源短缺风险的模糊综合评价方法。最后对包括北京和天津在内的首都圈水资源短缺风险进行了评价。结果表明,如果没有南水北调工程,2010年整个首都圈的水资源短缺风险将会处于高风险水平,水资源供需状况极度危险,对水资源采取有效的风险管理措施已刻不容缓。
The risk rate, weakness, possibility of recovery, period for reappear and risk level are defined as the indexes for assessing the water shortage risk of regional resources. On this basis the method for fuzzy comprehensive assessment of water shortage risk of regional resources is developed. The suggested method is used to assess the water shortage risk of capital area in China including the Beijing and Tianjin. The result shows that the water shortage risk of this area is at very high level and the contradiction between water supply and water demand will be intensive in the year of 2010 without the South to North Water Transfer Project. It means that the adoption of measures for effective risk management of water resources is a very urgent task.
出处
《水利学报》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2005年第8期906-912,共7页
Journal of Hydraulic Engineering
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(50239090)
关键词
水资源
风险
综合评价
北京
天津
water resources
water shortage
risk
comprehensive assessment
capital area of China
