摘要
本文在分析可能影响我国国债发行规模的各种经济变量的基础上,检验了国债发行与各经济变量的相关关系和因果联系,根据分析,影响国债发行规模最主要的因素是债务余额、GDP的波动,其次是国家财政收入和支出、赤字水平。也就是说,影响国债发行规模的因素更多的是财政本身的收支状况和宏观经济形势,其余的因素,如GDP、社会资金的余缺、财政的投资规模,它们的影响相对较小。
On the basis of analyzing the economic factors that can influence the magnitude of national debt issuing, this paper has studied the relations and reason-cause effects between the variable of economic factors. According to the analysis, the most critical and immediate factors that can influence the magnitude of issuing national debt are the stock of debt and the fluctuation of GDP, and then national fiscal revenue, expenditure and fiscal deficit, It is said that the factors affecting the debt-issuing are from the fiscal revenue, expenditure conditions and macroeconomic situation, but the others factors, such as GDP, the amount of social fund, and the scale of fiscal investment have less effect.
