人力资本外流与经济增长——对人才外流损失的计量分析

The Brain Drain and Economic Growth: An Econometric Analysis of the Loss of Brain Drain

本文在新古典增长模型的基础上,引入人力资本和移民净流出量两个变量,采用比较静态的分析方法,计量分析平衡增长路径上人才外流的收入损失。由于外流人才富含人力资本,根据给定参数计算,即使少量的高素质人才外流,也会带来巨大的经济损失。如果不考虑人力资本的正外部经济效应和国家教育投资损失,仅考虑劳动力和人力资本等生产要素流失所带来的经济损失,根据2002年的数据估算,我国当年的国内生产总值因人才外流就损失约92.2亿元。

This paper introduces the two variables of human capital and net emigrant flow into the neo-classical economic growth model, and estimates the economic loss of the brain drain in China by using a comparative static analytical method. According to the given variables, considering the abundant human capital of emigration, even if the number of emigration with high skill is very small, the loss is still very great. If we take no account of the positive externalities of human capital and the loss of education investment of the country, while only consider the economic loss of factors of production (such as labor, human capital, and so on), according to the interrelated data, the loss of the GDP from the brain drain in China was estimated to be 9. 22 billion Yuan in 2002.