国际资本流动对中国货币政策影响的实证研究

An Empirical Study of the Relationship between InternationalCapital Flows and China's Monetary Policy

在开放经济的“三元冲突”中,中国选择了固定汇率,较严格的资本管制和较大的货币政策独立性,即用少量货币政策独立性的丧失换取有限度的资本流动。但在这种组合下,随着我国资本流动规模的扩大,货币政策独立性也将进一步丧失。对于中国,货币政策的自主权至关重要,除非有能力继续维持更严格的资本管制,我国必须逐步扩大汇率的浮动区间。

In the so-called 'impossible trinity' of open economy, China chose fixed exchange rate regime, comparatively strict movement of capital and independent monetary policy, that means China gave up some degree of monetary policy independence in exchange for limited capital mobility. But with the enlargement of China's capital flow scale, China will further lose much more monetary policy autonomy. For China, monetary policy autonomy is of paramount importance. Unless China has the capacity of maintaining more rigid limitation on capital, the floating scope of exchange rate must be widened gradually.