滑坡预测与风险评价专家系统

AN EXPERT SYSTEM FOR LANDSLIDE FORECAST AND EVALUATION

滑坡是一种常见的地质灾害，其预测过程十分复杂。文章介绍一个滑坡预测与风险评价专家系统ＬＦＥＥＳ。ＬＦＥＥＳ对滑坡的预测分为定性预测和定量预测两大类：定性预测以专家经验知识为基础，由符号推理产生定性的预测结；定量预测则由定量计算模型产生定量的预测结论。ＬＦＥＥＳ能够根据预测结论对滑坡灾害进行风险评价，并给出防治策略。讨论ＬＦＥＥＳ的总体结构、知识表示、推理方法和定量计算模型，并对ＬＦＥＥＳ用于滑坡多发城市重庆及其附近地区的几个典型滑坡的实现情况和预测结果进行了详细介绍。

This paper presents an expert system LFEES for landslide forecast and evaluation. Symbolic reasoning and numeric computing are integrated together in LFEES.Thereare two types of landslide prognoses in LFEES: qualitative and quantitative prognoses.Qualitative prognoses are based on symbolic reasoning. Quantitative prognoses are completed through quantitative computation.The design and implemention of LFEES are introduced. LFEES has been applied to Chongqing City where landslides take place frequently. Five examples have been tested on LFEES. Two of them are related in this paperat length.