对地铁工程风险评估体系框架的研究

Study on the System Frame of Risk Evaluation in Subway Engineering

地铁工程同一般建设项目相比,受不可预见的水文地质条件、社会环境、施工技术的可靠度、经济发展的程度等多方面因素的影响较重;就必然使地铁工程成为高风险的工程建设项目,然而目前对其风险评估工作还停留在简单的定性和定量的评估水平上。为此,笔者在研究系统论的基础上,从动态系统风险评估的观点出发,运用动态控制的原理,着重研究适合于地铁工程风险评估体系的理论框架,及建立理论框架时应考虑的诸多问题;同时对动态系统风险评估、评价因素可靠性分析技术、各种风险评估方法及评估技术的运用做了简要论述。该框架体系不仅适用于地铁工程的风险评估,同样适用于其他复杂的工程系统的风险评估评价。

Compared with other general construction projects, the subway engineering is more influenced by many factors, such as unpredictable hydrological and geolcgical conditions, social environment, the reliability of construction technology, the degree of economical development etc. This must cause the subway engineering being a kind of high risk project. At present, the risk evaluation of the subway engineering stays still on simple qualitative and quantitative level. From the point of dynamic system risk evaluation combined with dynamic control theory, the system frame of risk evaluation for subway engineering based on study of system theory is emphatically studied. Problems need to be considered during setting up of the system frame are also discussed. At the same time, the application of risk evaluation techniques in the dynamic system, the techniques of cause reliability analysis, and all kinds of risk evaluation methods and techniques are briefly inttroduced. The frame could also be used in other complicated engineering systems.