经济增长、产业结构与劳动力转移

Economic Grown, Industry Structure and Labor Transfer

当前中国经济增长与显性就业之间总体上的不相关根本原因在于一产中大量隐性失业的存在,这些集中在农村的大量剩余劳动力对我国就业压力起到了一个蓄水池的作用。由于中国剩余劳动力具有极为典型的产业间分布特征,因此我们提出了一个不同于托达罗模型的、以劳动力的产业间转移为基本分析框架的模型。之后,我们以改革开放以来我国的经验数据对我们的理论进行了实证检验。

Today, the main reason for the uncorrelated of economic development and face employment is that there is many hiden unemployment in the first industry. There hiden unemployment persons had made a “pool” effect to the employ ee demand. The persons＇distribution of hiden unemployment has close relation to the industrial structure, so we advance a new theory different from the Todaro＇model, and build up a model that labor force transfer between different industries. Finally, we verify the hypothesis that deduced from the theory model by the historic data of our country.