中国城镇化发展与农民收入增长关系的动态计量经济分析

An Analysis of Dynamic Econometric Relationship Between Development of Urbanization and Income Growth of Rural Residents in China

本文在建立向量自回归模型的基础上,运用脉冲响应函数和预测方差分解来刻画城镇化发展与农民收入增长之间的动态相关性。研究结论表明,我国城镇化发展与农民收入增长之间存在着较强的正向交互响应作用,而且其长期的响应作用程度更显著、更稳定。因此,在当前条件下,加速推进城镇化进程是持续增加农民收入的根本路径选择和重要途径。在采用城镇化发展促进农民收入增长的政策选择上,应采取长期政策而非短期政策。

Based on the foundation of vector auto-regression model, This paper applies impulse response function and variance decomposition to portray the dynamic correlations between development of urbanization and income growth of rural residents. The result shows that there exists a strong positive role of response between them; In the long run, the role oI response is more pronnnent ano stable. In current conditions, accelerating pace of urbanization is the fundamental approach choice to increase peasants＇ income. Taking the advantage of development of urbanization to promote income growth of rural residents, we should adopt longterm policies.