企业价值评估中相对收益能力确定及仿真计算

Relative Revenue Capacity and Simulation Calculation for Enterprise Valuation

运用GM(1,1)模型对企业的未来收益进行预测,然后提出了“企业相对收益能力”的概念,在综合考虑与企业的核心竞争能力密切相关的各种财务与非财务因素的基础上,建立综合评估指标体系,并运用灰色评估方法求得企业相对收益能力的定量值;可以用它对收益增长的速度进行调整,从而实现对收益折现法所得的企业价值的修正。由于收益预测值和相对收益能力都是不确定的值,企业价值也必然是一个不确定的值。本文采用了蒙特卡罗仿真方法并运用CRYSTALBALL软件进行计算,可以求得企业价值的概率分布范围,为评估实务提供更为科学合理的决策支持。

GM （1,1） model is used to forecast the enterprise revunue in future, then the concept of enterprise Relative Revenue Capacity（RRC） is given on the consideration of various financial, non-financial factors related to enterprise core competence, and the quantitive value of an enterprise RRC is obtained by setting up an integrated evaluating index system and using gray evaluating method ; The increasing speed of the revenue is amended by using RRC value, then the enterprise value calculated by discounted cash flow method is adjusted. Since the forecasting revenue and RRC are uncertain, .so is the enterprise value. By applying Monte-Carlo simulation and Crystal Ball simulation software, the probability distribution of the enterprise value can be generated, and the simulation results could give more scientific and reasonable decision support for practical enterprise valuation.