股评家是先知吗?——基于行为金融理论的股评研究评述

Are Stock Analysts Prophets?—A Survey of Stock Recommendations Based on Behavior Finance Theory

随着股市的发展,股评信息充斥了各种专业性和非专业性报刊、网络、电视台。股评家怎样选股?被股评家推荐的股票的投资价值到底如何?投资者可以根据股评家的投资建议获利吗?本文从行为金融理论的角度阐释了股评家常犯的错误,并系统地回顾了国内外相关股评研究文献的主要成果及其存在的不足,进而提出了进一步的研究方向。

With the development of security market, stock analysts＇ recommendations permeate the financial media in TV, on the Internet, and in newspapers. How stock analysts select stocks？ Are the recommendations of analysts useful to investors？ Do investors＇ profits from these recommendations exceed transaction costs？ Can analysts intentionally manipulate stock prices even temporarily from their equilibrium values？ This paper systematically reviews the existent re,search on stock recommendations domestic and aboard. Then we analyze the cognitive biases in stock recommendations based on Behavioral Finance Theory. Finally, we bring forward some instructive proposals concerning the development of the research of the Chinese stock recommendations.