中国究竟还有多少农业剩余劳动力

How Much Surplus Agricultural Labor Is There in China?

本文通过古典估算法、新古典估算法、标准结构比较法对中国现阶段农业剩余劳动力进行了重新估算和比较分析。除了估算剩余劳动力总量外,文章还注重剖析剩余劳动力的结构,亦对学术界使用过的三种估算方法做了不同程度的修改和完善。结果显示古典测算方法的可信度和解释力都是最强的。由此,本文得出结论：当前我国农业剩余劳动力约为4600万。

The authors of this paper re-estimate,compare and analyze China's current surplus agricultural labor by means of the classical estimation method,the neo-classical estimation method and standard structural comparison.In addition to estimating the total amount of surplus labor,the paper focuses on analyzing the structure of the labor force,a feature that distinguishes this paper from other studies in the field.Revision and improvement are made to varying extents to the three estimation methods applied in academic studies to ensure the credibility and validity of the result.Comparison of the three methods suggests that the classical estimation method is the best in terms of both credibility and explanatory power.Thus the paper concludes that China's surplus agricultural labor currently amounts to 46 million.