基于GIS的滑坡综合预测预报信息系统

A GIS-BASED COMPREHENSIVE LANDSLIDE FORECASTING INFOEMATION SYSTEM

由于滑坡的复杂性、随机性和不确定性,加之目前的滑坡灾害预测预报理论研究还存在局限性,大大增加了滑坡预报的难度。本文针对目前滑坡预测预报研究中的不足,提出了滑坡综合预测预报信息系统,并对该系统的结构、功能和内容等进行了详尽地设计和开发。滑坡综合预测预报信息系统以G IS为平台,利用智能决策支持系统的理论和方法将以监测资料为依据的滑坡定量预报与以专家经验知识为依据的滑坡定性预报有机结合起来,做到了各取所长,优势互补,实现了滑坡的综合预测预报,提高了滑坡的预报水平。运用该系统不仅可以判断滑坡体的变形破坏机制、目前的稳定性状况和破坏概率,而且可以对滑坡体的变形演化阶段以及滑动时间作出预测预报,从而给滑坡现场工程师的综合判断和决策提供了重要的参考和有关科学依据的实用化工具。

Because of complexity and uncertainty of landslides and limitations of prediction theory at present, it is very difficult to forecast landslides in time. This paper presents a GIS -based comprehensive landslide forecasting information system. Based on the GIS platform, the system combines quantitative forecasting based on the landslide monitoring data with qualitative forecasting on the basis of experts＇ experience and knowledge, using an intelligent decision- making support system to make full use of knowledge base. The deformation and failure mechanisms, stability condition and failure probability of landslides can be assessed from this comprehensive system. In addition, the deformation stage and sliding time can also be predicted. Therefore, it provides useful information on landslide forecasting for decision making.