财务困境分析中警兆指标的随机游动估计

The Alarm Aura of Financial Distress Discriminant Analysis: a Random Fluctuation Model

警兆是警情爆发之前的先兆性指标,对其进行定量分析是财务困境分析中最为关键的一环。通过设定财务困境分析中警兆指标的上、下限,确定警兆指标变动的趋势,运用马尔可夫链进行随机游动估计,可以推导出分析时点警兆指标的恶化概率,并对其警情与警度作出分析,从而不但可以避免仅仅用警素指标建立模型进行财务困境预测的不足,而且使公司决策者能够有针对性地及早发现并排除分析指标所蕴涵的经营管理和财务风险,有效地防止风险恶化为财务困境的重要意义。

Alarm aura is the foreshowing signal of the alarm deteriorating. The quantitative analysis of alarm aura is of great importance to the analysis of financial distress. A random fiuctuation model for the alarm aura of financial distress analysis is built in this paper. This model can analyze the crisis of alarm aura from firm＇s operation and finance. Building a random fluctuation model for the alarm aura of financial distress analysis overcomes the shortcomings of the traditional prediction models which omit firm-specific factors, macroeconomic trend, and the quantitative analysis of alarm aura, as well as decision-maker＇s individual influence from experience, wisdom and information priority. On the other hand, the random fluctuation model is indispensable in early finding firm＇s operation and financial risk, and preventing financial crisis.