天津市经济发展可持续性的定量分析

A Quantitative Analysis of the Sustainability of the Economic Development of Tianjin City

采用绿色国内生产总值(GGDP)与真实储蓄(GS)定量地评估天津市经济发展的可持续性,提出新的资源价值货币化方法。研究表明,1991～2003年,天津经济发展是可持续的;同时,资源、环境污染以及资源环境损耗值占GDP的比重分别为7.35%～10.20%、1.13%～3.63%和8.82%～13.02%;GDP比GGDP每年高估产出37.61～215.95亿元;可持续性特征将会随着资源环境因子覆盖面增大而变弱。

This paper adopts the standards of Green Gross Domestic Production （GGDP） and Genuine Savings （GS） to conduct a quantitative research on the sustainability of the economic development of Tianjin City, and proposes a new method for the monetary realization of resource values. Research proves that between 1991 and 2003, economic development in Tianjin is sustainable; the rates of resource, environmental pollution and resource depletion amount to 7.35%-10.20%, 1.13%-3.63% and 8.82%-13.02% of the GDP respectively; GDP outperforms GGDP at an annual amount between 3.761 billion and 21.595 billion. The sustainable features will decrease as the coverage of the environmental genes increases.