基于对数二次指数平滑的港口吞吐量预测

Comparing Two Forecast Models of Ports' Handling Capacity

港口吞吐量预测是港口总体布局规划的重要前期工作,这项工作影响深远。以某港口为例,简介了二次指数平滑预测港口吞吐量过程;提出了用对数二次指数平滑预测港口吞吐量;分析了对数二次指数平滑的优点;得出结论:对数二次指数平滑模型比较适合快速成长的港口进行吞吐量定量预测,可为这些港口规划决策提供科学依据,供有关部门参考。

The forecast of ports＇ handling capacity is one important work before planning total arrangement of ports. The influence of the work is profound and far-reaching. Taking a port as an example, the paper simply introduces the forecast process of its total handling capacity with second-index flatness, puts forward logarithm second-index flatness for the forecast process of ports＇ total handling capacity, analyses its excellence and reaches a conclusion that logarithm second-index flatness is fit for the forecast of ports＇ total handling capacity which is developing rapidly. It provides the scientific gist for ports＇ planning. It can be referenced by some relational departments.