岩土工程风险分析及应用综述

Summary about risk analysis of geotechnical engineering and its application

系统分析了岩土工程不确定性的根源及其分析方法,总结了降低不确定性的途径。系统评述了岩土参数随机场估计、随机变量描述方法以及模型不确定性研究。对几类典型岩土工程问题的风险分析方法、研究现状及其工程应用进行了总结。对目前岩土工程风险理论及其应用的前沿问题进行了研究和展望。研究指出岩土工程风险分析待研问题主要有:系统的风险源辨识方法包括风险源辨识的可视化研究,不确定性因子的合理描述研究,极限状态包括失效模式的仿真研究,不确定性计算包括应用信息融合技术数据挖掘技术研究,目标可靠度研究,风险转嫁风险交换的量化及风险跟踪的实施研究,风险的反分析研究等。展望岩土工程风险分析与应用:风险分析反映了对工程设计的综合性要求,表现了安全与经济的统一;定量风险分析作为决策工具或传统设计的补充,可给决策者提供更多的辅助评价信息,提高了结果的置信程度;但现在能描述的还只是“随机性的确定性模式”,工程师们只有使用“保守的”选择,以适应和弥补不完全的认识与有限的资料的条件。

The inherent uncertainty on geotechnical engineering is rootstock come into being risk. The kinds Of uncertainty have been systematic analysis. The ways for analysis and reducing uncertainty have been summarized. To evaluate stochastic-field about geotechnical parameters has been reviewed. The uncertainty of the numerical model and variables description has been discussed. The risk analysis ways, status in quo, and its application for typical geotechnical have been integrated. The forward question for geotechnical risk theory, such as reasonable description of uncertain factors, imitation study of invalidation modes, risk analysis applied modern information technology, to quantify research the weakened risk by engineering, and anti-analysis of risk as well as relative question has been viewed. The application prospect of geotechnical risk analysis, with regard to imaging synthesized demand for engineering design, representing the unification between safety and economy has been stated. By way of supplement of decision-making or traditional design, quantified risk analysis can provide more assistant evaluation information to the decision-maker. However, it can only be described of ＂random certainty model＂ at present, therefore, the engineer none but make conservative selection in order to adapt and remedy incomplete acquaintance and limited information in geotechnical engineering.