基于灰色灾变原理的互联网用户人数预测模型

A Forecast Model of Internet Users Based on the Grey Disaster Theory

为了解决传统的GM(1,1)模型在互联网发展预测中存在的历史数据跳变的问题,本文根据灰色灾变原理,基于互联网发展迅速、预测周期短等特点,介绍了一种将GM(1,1)模型与一元线性回归模型结合起来的方法。使用1997年10月至2005年1月的数据,建立了我国互联网用户人数的预测模型,并进行了检验,证明该方法在实际应用中取得了很好的预测效果。

In the traditional GM （1, 1） forecasting model, there exists the problem of the aberrant points＇ presence of the history data. Based on the grey disaster theory and the characteristics of the Intemet which is under rapid development and difficult to make a long term forecast, this paper presents a new method which combines the GM （ 1, 1 ） forecasting model with the subsection linear reo＇ession functions. A forecast model is estabhshed using the data of the Intemet user growth of China from October, 1997 to January, 2005. The modelproves to be very precise in practical applicatioil.