绿洲灌区人地粮系统的现状评价与优化策略——以张掖市甘州区为例

Current situation and optimize tactics of population-arable land-grain system in oasis irrigation area --Taking Ganzhou district of Zhangye as an example

运用灰色预测的方法对甘州区人地粮复合系统进行了综合研究。结果表明,2000～2010年甘州区人口增长率仍将维持在8.93‰的水平,2005和2010年全区人口分别为50.83×104人和52.14×104人,按人均消费粮食400kg计,保证粮食安全所需耕地分别为1.98×104hm2和2.07×104hm2,约占现有耕地面积的43.3%和43.5%;甘州区人均耕地呈明显下降态势。控制人口、建设生态和发展节水农业、提高农业科技含量是促进该区人地粮系统协调发展的基本策略。

Population-arable land-grain system of Ganzhou distract was comprehensively studied by using gray forecast method. The results indicated as follows： the population of Ganzhou increased with a rate of 8.93‰ in 2000-2010, and it reached to 50.83×10^4 and 52.14×10^4 in 2005 and 2010 respectively, if per capita consuming grain was 400 kg, then to assure grain security needed 1.98×10^4 hm^2 and 2.07×10^4 hm^2 arable land which was 43.3 % and 43.5 % of existing arable land; per capita arable land of Ganzhou appeared an obvious decline trend. Controlling population, reconstructing ecology, developing water saving agriculture and improving agricultural science and technology should be the optimum tactics for improving coordinative development of Ganzhou population-arable land-grain system.