棉铃虫猖獗危害与虫源基数及气象因子关系分析

Relationship of the Outbreak of Cotton Bollworm to Their Initial Population Density and Related Weather Factors

搜集和整理了河北省正定１９７２～１９９３年棉铃虫系统调查资料和气象资料，并运用相关矩阵法对世代间卵量、幼虫密度、成虫始期、历期和蛾量间关系及２～４代卵量与气象因子关系进行了分析，试图寻找棉铃虫猖獗危害的原因。结果表明：（１）越冬蛹数量加大是棉铃虫猖獗危害的基础，１～３代幼虫密度与越冬蛹的数量呈显著正相关；（２）虫源积累是棉铃虫猖獗危害的重要原因。２～４代累积卵量与上代累积卵量、幼虫密度、蛾量呈显著正相关，并建立了幼虫密度与上代史源的关系式；（３）各代间成虫始蛾期里正相关，但发生期早晚与蛾量及下代卵量、幼虫密度间无明显相关关系；（４）二三代累积卵量与５月下旬气温的相关系数分别为０．８０６和０．９，而与相对湿度关系不大。

A-22-year(1972-1993) system field census data of cotton bollworm population and related weather factors in Hebei Zhengding County were collected and sorted out.The correlation matrix method was used to statistically analyse these data in order to find out the reason of cotton bollworm's outbreak. The result indicated that:(1)The increasing of overwinter pupal population was the basis of the outbreak of cotton bollworm,and the larvea density of the 1st,2nd and 3rd generation was positive correlated with the overwinter pupal population. (2)The accumulation of the initial population density was the main reason for their outbreak. The accumulated egg numbers of the 2nd. 3rd and 4th generation were evidently positive correlated with their former generation's egg numbers、larvea density and adult numbers,and the related expression between larvea density and their former generation population density were established.(3)The beginning stage of the adult were positive correlated between generations,but were not evident correlated with egg numbers and larvea density of their next generation (4)The correlation coefficient of the accumulated egg numbers of the 2nd and 3rd generation and air temperature of the last ten days of May was 0.809 and 0.9 but was not significantly related with the relative humidity.