不稳定的货币流通速度必然导致货币量中介目标无效吗?

Unstable Money Velocity Must Induce the Inefficacy of Money Aggregate Being Used as Intermediate Target

大量的文献研究表明,货币流通速度的稳定性是货币量作为货币政策中介目标的先决条件。近年来随着金融创新的发展,各个国家的货币流通速度都出现了较大的波动,因此,无论是理论界还是货币政策当局对货币量作为货币政策中介目标可能性的否定,在一定程度上都依据了货币流通速度的不稳定性。然而,基于伯杜和乔纳格的研究,本文研究表明:货币流通速度的不稳定并不必然意味着货币量作为货币政策中介目标是无效的,影响货币量作为货币政策中介目标的最主要因素是流通速度的可预测性以及货币当局对货币流通速度的预测能力;只要货币当局能够准确预测货币流通速度变化的方向和幅度,货币供给量就仍然可以作为货币政策的中介目标。本文的结论是,近期中国广义货币M 2的可预测性较好,因此,基于货币流通速度的不稳定性而否定货币量作为中介目标的可能性是不正确的。

Substantive literatures about monetary policy show that the stable velocity of money is the precondition of using money aggregates as a intermediate target to conduct monetary policy. Recently, with the development of financial innovation, the velocity does appear some instability, and both for economists and policymakers, this is the reason for abandoning money in the process of conducting monetary policy. However, according to this paper, the instability of velocity does not means that it is ineffective for using the money ag^egates as a target, and the most important factor which affects the effect of monetary target is both the foreseeability of velocity and the power of central bank to foresee the variational velocity. The conclusion of this paper include that as long as central bank can foresee the variational velocity law, the monetary target can be effective, though the velocity itself is variation.