层次单权分析法估计P-Ⅲ型分布参数的探讨

Discussion on applying analytic hierarchy process and weight function method to estimate statistical parameters of P-Ⅲ distribution

针对设计洪水计算中P-Ⅲ型分布参数的估计,提出将层次分析法与权函数法相结合的新思路。其中,层次分析法根据资料的可靠性等将数据分组并分别给定不同的权重,以此权重优化系列的均值和变差系数;然后再结合权函数法估计偏态系数。实例分析表明,该方法更符合实际且拟合误差较小,具有一定的参考价值。

A new thought to estimate the statistical parameters of P-Ⅲ distribution has been given in this paper, that is to combine analytic hierarchy process and weight function method, especially when this distribution is used to analyze design flood. The formeranalytic hierarchy process is applied to optimize average value and variation parameter in terms of each data＇s weight on the base of their reliability, and the later will calculate skew parameter. This new method is proved to be more practical and with less error than the old ones. So, it is worth to be used for reference.