强余震“等待时间”判别方案预报效能的研究

STUDY ON PREDICTION ABILITY OF METHOD FOR DISTINGUISHING THE WAITING TIME OF STRONG AFTERSHOCK

通过系统清理１９９６年以来中国大陆７０个Ｍｓ≥５．５级地震序列的＂强余震＂Ｌｇ△ｔ－Ｌｇｔ关系，对强余＂等待时间＂判别方案预报效能进行了评估。结果表明，其回顾性预报的Ｗａｌｌｅｎ评分为：６级以上地震序列Ｖ＝０．６０，５．５级以上地震序列为０．４４，说明其在地震序列类型判断方面有一定的效能。对实际震例分析得出，该方案在判定主余型序列方面成功率较高，而对于双震或多震序列，有时会产生某些误判；对６级以上地震序列的预测成功率高一些，对低震级的序列判断应慎重。

This study has systematically examined the relation Lg△t-Lgt of strong aftershock in 70 seismic sequences of Ms≥5.5 in the China Continent since 1996 and evaluates the prediction ability of the relation.The results show that the Wallen's grading of review(prediction) with the method for determining waiting time of strong aftershock are 0.60 for seismic sequences of 6.0 or up and 0.44 for 5.5.These scores demonstrate certain efficiency for distinguising the type of seismic sequence.