城市用水量预测方法及应用比较研究

Comparative research on predicting method and application for city water consumption

为了建立城市用水量预测方法模型库,本文总结了城市用水量的预测方法。详细介绍了时间序列分析法、解释性预测方法、灰色GM(1,1)以及用水定额法等几种代表性方法。指出每种方法的优缺点,城市用水量预测应根据实际情况选取预测方法。以郑州市为例,选取不同的方法进行预测及分析,结果表明郑州市2020年之前的用水量呈现非线性递增的趋势。

In order to set up the model storehouse of predicting urban water consumption, this paper has summarized the water consumption prediction methods, and introduces several representative methods in detail, such as time array analysis approach, grey GM （1, 1） and water quota law method. Taking Zhengzhou as an example, choosing different methods to predict and analyze, the results indicate the increasing trend of the water consumption before 2020 in the city.