云南省泥石流灾害危险度分区研究

A STUDY ON THE RISK REGIONALIZATION OF DEBRIS FLOW HAZARDS IN YUNNAN

本文应用数理统计方法，探讨了云南省泥石流灾害危险度分区评价方法，将云南省３８．４万ｋｍ２范围剖分为９０３个评价单元，由计算得出泥石流危险极度、重度、中度和轻度四个等级的划分界线，并据此分析划分出１１个泥石流灾害危险区域，其中泥石流极度危险区面积占全省，总面积的７．４２％，重度危险区面积３７．７６％，中度危险区面积４４．８５％轻度危险区面积９．９７％。为了进一步分析对比全省各地州市泥石流灾害危险度，根据１７个地、州、市的单元危险度评价因子平均值，计算出各地州市评价单元的危险度平均值，作为各地区的总体泥石流危险度并进行了危险状况分级，其结果可为云南省泥石流，总体减灾规划的制定和灾情预测预报提供科学指导。

This paper applied the mathematical statistic method to discuss the assessment methods of risk regionalization of debris flow hazards.The Yunnan area of 384,000 km2 was divided into 903 rectangle areas by using the boundary of 1:50,000 topographic maps.According to the caculating results,This paper use four grade system to evaluate the risk degree of every rectangle areas,and then got the 11 diffrent risk degree regions for debris flow.The assessment results show that the extrmely risk degree area takes up 7.42% of total area of Yunnan, the upper risk degree area 37.76%,the middle risk degree area 44.85% and the low risk degree areas 9.97%.At last,authors take the caculating and synthetic analysis results to evaluate the risk coditions of 17 districts of Yunnan province, which will provide a scientific guide to the government when they formulate a plan for reducing debris flow hazards.