国债利率对债务稳定性影响的理论与实证研究

The Theoretical and Substantial Research on the Debt Rate to Debt Stability

文章首先概括了1981年至2003年我国发行国债所引起的债务负担情况,并分析了国债利率与债务关系的相关理论模型。然后在推导多马国债模型的基础上,实证分析了我国自1981年以来国债发行利率对债务稳定性的影响的定量关系。分析表明:当国债利率高于经济增长率时,国债所引起的债务负担呈现发散性;当国债利率低于经济增长率时,国债所引起的债务负担将呈现收敛性。文章认为,近年来我国通过发行国债拉动内需以促进经济增长的决策是完全正确的,现阶段积极财政政策淡出的必要性并不大。

In this paper, we tirstly summarized the situation of national debts issue interest rate and debt burden from 1981 to 2002 in our country , and analysed the correlation theory model about the relation between national debt interest rate and the debt burden. Then, based on the derivation of the Dommer national debt model, we demonstrated the relationship between the national issue interest rate and the debt burden stability of our country since 1981. The analyses in this paper made it clear that the debt burden caused by the national debt took on the divergent trend when the national debt interest rate was higher than the economic growth rate, and it took on the convergent trend when the national debt interest rate was lower than the economic growth rate. In this paper , we consider it is completely right that in the past few years our country issued the national debt to enlarge the internal needs and accelerate the economic growth, and it is not too essential that the positive fiscal policy fade out gradually in the current phase.