摘要
采用AIC信息准则来确定AR模型的阶。模型参数估计使用了方法简单、参数估计无偏、精度高的最小二乘法。理论分析和仿真结果均表明,AR模型能够较好地解决人口增长预测这一非线性问题,并取得一定的预测精度。
This paper uses MC information criterion to determine the order of AR model. The simple, agonic and highly accurate least square method is used to estimate the model＇s parameters. Theoretical analyses and simulation results illustrate that AR model can solve the non-linear problem of the population growth prediction quite well.
出处
《计算机与现代化》
2005年第10期11-12,共2页
Computer and Modernization
关键词
AR模型
最小二乘法
人口预测
AR model
least square method
population prediction
