扩大内需中的货币政策效应——1996-2003年的实证分析

Effectiveness of Monetary Policy in China:Some Empirical Evidences in 1996-2003

1996年以来,我国货币政策是有效的,但效果有限;近期内,依然存在利用货币政策影响实际经济的可能性。货币政策目标的实现,取决于执行货币政策的方式以及扩张(或紧缩)的力度。在通货收缩时期,如果只有货币数量扩张,而没有鼓励公共或私人投资的配套政策,或者数量扩张的力度不够,经济增长率就可能下滑。货币供应量的变化难以解释价格水平的变动,价格水平的波动除受总需求变化的影响外,还受总供给变化的影响。我国正经历从总供给能力不足向总供给能力相对过剩的经济转型,来自总供给方面的影响就更为突出。

Since 1996, China＇ s monetary policy has been effective while limited. For recent time, there has been a possibility of utilizing the monetary policy to influence practical economy. The realization of the goal of monetary policy lies on the way of carrying out this policy and the force of expanding as well as condensing. During the period of currency deflstion, if there is only monetary quantity increase without accessory policy of encouraging public and private investments, or the deficiency of the force of quantity increase, then the economic increase will fall down. The change in money supply cannot explain the change in price level. Except being affected by general need, price fluctuation is also affected by the change of general supply. As China is a transition from general supply deficiency to relative oversupply, influence from general supply is becoming more outstanding.