民航灾害的复杂性特征探索

Research on Complexity of the Civil Aviation Calamity

民航灾害作为一种高度复杂的社会现象,它具有非线性、多样性、突发性、随机性、整体性、多变性、统计性和规律性等复杂性特征。提出将民航灾害看作一个复杂系统,借助分形理论、混沌理论、人工神经网络等复杂性科学的工具,并结合预警管理方法,对民航灾害的复杂性进行探索,初步构造了民航灾害复杂性研究的理论框架。

As a kind of highly-complex social phenomenon, the civil aviation calamity has the complex characteristics of nonlinear, diversity, sudden and randomicity, integration, variability, statistic and regularity. On the basis of a civil aviation calamity,which is a complex system, its complexity is probed with the help of the complexity theory＇s tools （such as chaos, fractat, ANN and so on） and the method of early-warning management, and a primary theoretic frame of complexity research of the civil aviation calamity is constructed.