浙江电力工业与国民经济增长关系的研究

Relationship between electric power industry and economic growth of Zhejiang

对浙江省电力与经济增长的关系进行研究,可为浙江省经济决策与电力产业政策的制定提供科学依据。提出了电力与经济的关系研究,应同时考虑电力(装机容量)、电量与经济的关系,基于1978-2003年浙江省GDP、省总用电量及装机容量等统计数据,利用格氏因果关系及误差修正模型,检验了浙江省电力与经济的关系,结果显示为从用电量到GDP的单向因果关系、装机容量到GDP的单向因果关系,电力与电量的短缺会严重制约GDP的增长;用电量每增加1%,GDP增长0.940%,装机容量每增加1%,GDP增长0.958%,装机容量对浙江经济的促进作用更大。

Studying the relationship between power and economic growth of Zhejiang provides scientific support for decision - making on Zhejiang economy and establishment of policies on electric power industry. It is proposed that the power - economy relationship study should consider the installed capacity and the consumed electricity. Based on the GDP of Zhejiang during 1978 and 2003, the consumed electricity and the installed capacity of the Province, the relationship between electric power of Zhejiang and its economy is studied using the Granger - Causality （GC） and the Error Correction Model （ECM）. The results show that there is a one - way causality from electricity consumption to GDP, from installed capacity to GDP, and the shortage of power and electricity will eonstrain the GDP growth badly in Zhejiang, The GDP will increase by 0. 940% when the consumed electricity amount increases by 1%, the GDP will increase by 0.958% when the installed capacity increases by 1%. The installed capacity plays a greater role in promoting economy than the consumed electricity does,