我国产业经济重心演变路径及其影响因素分析

An Empirical Analysis on the Variation Track of the Industrial Gravity Centre and Its Influence Factors

针对重心的研究现状及存在的问题,在对比分析我国产业重心与经济重心、投资重心、人口重心演化路径的基础上提出假设,构造模型并进行计量分析,得出如下结论:产业重心移动不仅受产业产值大小及方差的显著影响,而且受经济、投资以及人口变量的总量大小及方差的显著影响,而增长速度对产业重心移动的影响不显著。

On analytical basis of the gravity center, this paper computed the shift routes of the gravity centers of the GDP, investment, population and the first,second and tertiary industry from 1978 to 2003 in China. It was showed that the gravity centers displayed an obvious southeast tendency in China. Then the shift routes of different attribute were analyzed contrastively and a conclusion that different gravity centers reacted each other was reached. The last part of this paper focused on the problem what were the influence factors of the gravity center of the industry. Three hypotheses were brought forward： the sum, the increasing speed and the variance would influence the shift direction and distance of the gravity center. The hypotheses were tested in the econometric way by software of Eviews. At last,some revelatory conclusions showed that the shifts of the industrial gravity centers were dramatically influenced not only by the sum and variance of the industry,but also by the sum and variance of GDP,investment and population. But the increasing speed hadn＇t shown dramatic influence on the shift of the industrial gravity centers. This paper suggested that we should sufficiently consider the long- existence of the economic gap in China when we established and carried out the industrial policy and echoic policy. One of the most important conclusions of this paper pointed out that if we wanted to shorten the economic gap,economy and industry development should balance with the decreasing variance.