Prediction of Magnetospheric Disturbances Caused by a Quasi-Stationary Solar Wind

When predicting parameters of quasi-stationary Solar Wind (SW) streams at 1 AU, it is customary to use, as the indicator of solar sources, the Bases of Open Magnetic Tubes (BOMT) on the solar surface obtained via a calculation relying on a new Bd-technique of harmonic expansion of the magnetic field from daily full-disk magnetograms developed by Rudenko[4]. By considering an example of 17 events, it is shown that the correspondence between fast SW streams at the Earth's orbit and the BOMT, calculated with ≤ 24 h time resolution, makes up about 94%, while the correspondence of SW stereams with the CH in the light of the 10830 A line is about 29%. With this technique, the predictability of maxima of the Kp index of magnetospheric disturbance caused by a fast quasi-stationary SW, is over 90%, and the prediction accuracy of the maximun velocity vm of the stream is ±15%.

When predicting parameters of quasi-stationary Solar Wind （SW） streams at 1 AU, it is customary to use, as the indicator of solar sources, the Bases of Open Magnetic Tubes （BOMT） on the solar surface obtained via a calculation relying on a new Bd-technique of harmonic expansion of the magnetic field from daily full-disk magnetograms developed by Rudenko. By considering an example of 17 events, it is shown that the correspondence between fast SW streams at the Earth＇s orbit and the BOMT, calculated with ≤24 h time resolution, makes up about 94%, while the correspondence of SW stereams with the CH in the light of the 10830A line is about 29%. With this technique, the predictability of maxima of the Kp index of magnetospheric disturbance caused by a fast quasi-stationary SW, is over 90%, and the prediction accuracy of the maximun velocity Vm of the stream is±15%.