黄河流域水资源调控方案评价与优选模型

Assessment and optimization model of water resources control alternative for the Yellow River basin

在明确黄河流域水资源调控目标的基础上,结合黄河流域的水资源利用特点,从水资源利用效果和可持续发展两个方面,提出了体现水资源调控目标的指标体系;将效用理论、人工神经网络理论和理想点技术结合,建立了调控方案水资源利用效果评价模型;从可持续发展的内涵和流域水资源利用的角度,提出了流域水资源调控方案可持续发展评价的准则和量化评价方法。用黄河流域水资源调控方案验证了模型和方法是合理可行的。

According to the sustainable development request of the economic society, the control objectives of water resources in the Yellow River basin is described. On the basis of this, combing the utilization characteristic of water resources in the YR basin, the index system is put forward, containing the control objective of water resources from two aspects which are the utilization effect of water resources and the sustainable development. Combined with the utility theory, the artificial neural network theory and the ideal-point technique organically, the assessment model for water resources utilization effect of the control alternative is estoblished. The sustainable development evaluation criterions and quantitative evaluation method are proposed in terms of water resources utilization according to the connotation of the sustainable development. The feasibility of the model and method is confirmed by 8 water resources control alternatives in the Yellow River basin.