中国海洋资源现状及海洋产业发展趋势分析

Current Situation and Development Trend of Marine Industry in China

应用灰色系统方法,对我国及沿海各省、市、自治区的主要海洋产业进行了关联度分析,并应用GM(1·1)模型对我国海洋产业产值进行预测,预测2010年我国海洋经济总产值将达到15000×108元以上。文章还评述了我国海洋产业发展中存在的问题,并展望了海洋产业结构调整趋势。我国海洋产业结构不尽合理,区域发展不平衡,科技贡献率低,海洋灾害影响大。海洋水产业仍将在我国海洋产业中占据重要地位,滨海旅游业和海洋交通运输业将成为新时期我国海洋主导产业,海洋药物等新兴海洋产业发展前景看好。

China is rich in marine resources including 20 278 plant species and covering 818 000 square sea miles of fishing grounds. It is estimated that there are about 40 billion tons of oil resources and 14 trillion cubic meters of natural gas in China＇ s sea areas. Several hundred kilometers coast with deep-water resources are surrounded by more than 160 bays. Many spots along the coastline are suitable for constructing harbors and developing marine transportation systems. There are more than 1 500 scenic and recreational spots favorable for developing marine tourism. In addition, China＇s offshore areas abound in seawater and marine energy resources. China has witnessed a fast growth in marine economy since 1978. Marine economy is the total of various industries involved in sea exploration and related economic activities. Major marine industries of China include marine fisheries, ocean communication and transportation, coastal shipbuilding, ocean oil and gas, seaside tourism, seaside ore sand, marine biomedicine, seawater utilization and salt production, etc. The paper analyzed industrial structure of the marine industries of the country, and the sequence of output value of the major marine industries in coastal provinces, municipalities, and autonomous region of China using grey relational grade. The prediction via GM （1.1） model indicated the output value would be more than 1 500 billion Yuan in 2010 in China. Existing problems and development trend of China＇ s marine industries were discussed and the results show that marine industrial structure is unreasonable, marine economy develops unevenly among different areas, scientific and technological contribution rate is low, and the marine calamity is of great impact. During the new period, marine fisheries will continue to play an important role, the coastal tourism and maritime transport will be the leading marine industries. Meanwhile, the new marine industries such as marine medicine will have a good prospect in the future.