中国金融发展与农民收入增长

Financial Development and the Income Growth of Farmer in China

本文在对中国金融发展与农民收入增长进行制度和结构分析的基础上,运用1952—2003年的实际数据,对中国整体金融发展、农村金融发展与农民收入增长的关系进行了实证研究。结果显示:中国金融发展对农民收入增长具有显著的负效应,用金融发展与经济增长的正向作用关系直接替代金融发展与农民收入增长的关系,与我国经济发展的事实并不相符;同时,也验证了制度和结构分析所揭示的“中国金融发展中防止结构和功能失衡至关重要”的命题。在此基础上,文章就金融发展促进农民收入增长提出了简要的政策建议。

Based on a macro-model in terms of China＇s financial development, rural financial development and farmer income growth, this paper aims to identify the real relationships between the financial development and faruler income growth in China over the period 1952--2003. Using annual national time-series data, Co-integration Tests, Granger Causality Tests and VAR analysis indicate that China financial development has definitely negative effects on the farmer income growth. The results show that, if we directly substitute the positive relationship between financial development and economic growth to the relationship between financial development and farmer income growth, and assume the financial development as the prerequisite of the farmer income growth, it will not be proper with the reality of China economy. Moreover, the paper verifies the proposition that “to prevent the structure and function from unbalance is vital for China financial development”. Some policy suggestions are given to promote the farmer income growth through China finaneial development.