我国寿险保费收入与金融资产关联性的实证研究

Correlation Analysis of Chinese Life Insurance Premium and Related Financial Assets

在金融资产选择理论框架下,从居民投资角度建立了寿险保费收入与部分金融资产间的ECM模型,结果发现:储蓄增长对寿险保费收入短期的贡献大于长期的贡献,加息会在短期内刺激保费增加但长期内却有抑制作用,国债和股票受结构性因素影响未表现出和寿险保费有长期均衡关系。寿险公司应在短期内把部分储蓄转化成保费,在长期内要开发新的营销渠道、加快寿险产品创新、加强保障型产品的开发。

According to the frame of Portfolio Theory, the paper examines the situation and driving power of China＇ s life insurance premium both in short - term and long - term with time series models. It is revealed that the long- run impacts and short - run impacts of increase in savings deposits and interest rate to the life insurance premium are very different when time＇s lag is considered. Our research also indicates that stocks and national bonds fail to establish a long- run equilibrium with premium due to the institutional bugs. Accordingly, increase in premium of life insurance in the short - term depends on widening marketing channels, offering more comprehensive services, speeding up product innovation and strengthening of indemnificatory products development by life insurance companies.