太湖鲚鱼渔获量变化与主要鱼类渔获量间关系的多元分析

Multianalysis between Catches of Lake Anchovy and Catches of Main Fishes in Lake Taihu

根据太湖1973～2002年的鱼类渔获量统计资料,应用多元线性回归分析及通径分析等方法,研究了太湖鲚鱼渔获量变化与主要鱼类渔获量间的关系.建立了太湖鲚鱼和主要鱼类渔获量间的最优线性回归模型.通径分析表明:对鲚鱼渔获量变化影响最大的是鲤、鲫鱼,其次是鲌鱼和鲢鳙鱼,其他鱼类对鲚鱼的变化影响不明显(P＞0.05).

Based on the statistics of fish catches from 1973 to 2002 in Lake Taihu, with the methods of stepwise regression analysis and path analysis, the effects of catches of main fishes on the changes of catches of lake anchovy（ Coilia ectenes taihuensis Yen et Lin ） in Lake Taihu were studied. The results showed that： the optimization regression model of lake anchovy was y = 8 124. 815 6 - 4. 126 6W3 ＋ 3. 193 6W4 - 2. 174 6W5,and the results of path analysis was： the catches of corranon carp（ Cyprinus carpio Linnaeus） and erueian carp（ Carassius aurams Linnaeus）had the maximal effects on catches of lake anchovy, and the catches of topmouth culter（ Erythroculter ilishaeformis Bleeker and Erythroculte rmongolion Basilewsky） and catches of silver carp （ttypophthalmicluhys molitrix Valenciennes） and bighead（ Aristichthys nobilis Richardson） following that. The path coefficient respectively was Py,4 = 0.7498（P〈0,0001）,Py,3= -0.3223（P=0.0102）,Py,5 = -0.2533（P=0.0453）.