张掖地区水资源承载力多目标情景决策

Assessment of water resources carrying-capacity with multi-criteria scenarioanalysis method:a case study in Zhangye region

本文以黑河流域中游张掖地区为例,基于水-生态环境-社会经济耦合系统的原理建立了水资源承载力的动态整合模型—投入产出多目标情景决策分析模型,对开放系统环境下的水资源承载力及与之相关的土地资源开发利用、虚拟水贸易与社会经济问题进行了深入分析,就产业结构调整、人口和城市化发展、节水技术进步、生态环境保护、分水、虚拟水战略等政策情景对水资源承载力的影响进行了定量分析评价。

In order to identify the water resources security and investigate the way for sustainable development of water resources, a new concept of water resources carrying capacity （WRCC） has been widely studied in the regional sustainable development during the past decades. As a case study, the methods of WRCC has been investigated for Zhangye region, located in the middle Heihe river basin. A dynamic and integrated model of WRCC water resources carrying capaeity is established in the frame of multi-criteria analysis on the basis of the major sectoral models including the extended input-out model, the assessment model of virtual water and the comprehensive evaluation model of WRCC, which provide an integrated frame for the study of water resources development, land use, virtual water trade and socio-economic development. The WRCC in different scenarios is discussed and the influence of some important policy factors on WRCC is evaluated including the adjustment of industrial factor, improvement of water-saving technology, implementation of “water allocation”scheme, virtual water strategy, etc. The study indicated that the WRCC of Zhangye still has considerable potentialities for sustaining the economic development with an annual rate of about 7% of GDP growth and the natural growth of the population at “Comparatively Well-off”living standard of the main agricultural products in 20 years premised with the implementation of environmental protection. “water allocation”scheme and the necessary