财政规模决定:一个经验模型

The Determination of Fiscal Size: An Empirical Model

在借鉴国外财政规模实证分析建模方法的基础上,我们重新澄清了研究中国财政规模决定的逻辑起点和理论建模方向。文章认为,工业化、城市化、人口结构等市场内生变量不能较好地解释20世纪70年代末以来我国财政规模的演变;相反,揭示我国经济社会转型的外生制度变量———经济分权和财政分权,连同显示市场交易总规模的国民收入变量,能够较好地解释这种变化。在理论上,作者所构建的简单计量模型分离出了市场与政府之间的替代效应和互补效应,前者反映了市场边界与政府边界的重新界定,后者反映了财政学中广为人知的“瓦格纳定律”。诚然,沿着这一基本思路还有大量的工作要做。

We describe the dynamic evolution of China＇s fiscal size with a simple econometric model. Two effects are included in the model, substituting effect and complementary effect. The first effect deals with such exogenous institutional variables as economic and fiscal decentralization. The second effect links with the famous Wagner＇s law. In transition economy, variables derived from Wagner＇s law, such as income, industrialization and urbanization, cannot explain the change of fiscal size. We can explain it better by emphasizing the substituting effect between government and market.