海口湾沿岸风暴潮风险评估

Risk assessment on storm surge in the Haikou Bay

参考内陆洪水损失评估的方法,建立适用于海口湾沿岸风暴潮风险区的损失评估模型,分析了海口湾沿岸风暴潮的风险区域,并根据100 a一遇极值高水位、100 a一遇风暴潮与最高天文潮位的组合水位、可能最大风暴潮与最高天文潮位的组合高水位条件,分析淹没范围;统计100 a一遇极值高水位淹没区内的建筑物,估计可能受灾人口.该文对海口湾沿岸的基本社会经济资料作了一、二级分类,并逐项进行统计,同时还根据需要作了抽样调查.对分部门的损失率计算方法作了详细介绍,得出个人家庭财产、国家集体财产、农作物和海水养殖等分部门的损失率分别为:30%,4%,70%和100%;以2001年社会经济资料为基础,100 a一遇极值高水位为条件,计算出潮灾经济损失约为8.32亿元,个人家庭财产、国家集体财产、农作物及海水养殖、人员伤亡损失、间接损失等分部门的损失金额占总损失的比率分别为:13.0%,70.0%,0.7%,0.8%和15.5%.

Based on the flood loss evaluation method, the storm surge risk loss evaluation model of Haikou Bay is set up in this paper, with which, the storm surge risk district of Haikou Bay is analyzed. Possible submerged areas are also analyzed according to the maximum high tidal level, the combination of strongest storm surge and highest astronomical tide within 100 a scale. In addition, buildings and population in the submerged regions are statistically counted. Social and economic data are also analyzed in the paper. After introducing the methods of loss rate calculation, loss rates of private property, national collective property, crop and sea farming are estimated as 30%, 4%, 70%, 100% separately. Taking social economic data in 2001 as the baseline, in the case of maximum high tidal level within 100 a scale, the economic loss caused by the storm surge is 832 million RMB, while the loss of private property, national collective property, crop and sea farming,monetary loss of death , indirect loss respectively is 13. 0%, 70. 0%, 0. 7%, 0. 8%, 15.5%.