缅甸:现政府和政治发展

Myanmar: the Present Government and Its Political Development

缅甸的经济发展水平、历史和文化传统、复杂的民族关系等多种因素是其军人政权得以长期执政的社会基础;军人集团的集中统一和近些年人民生活的改善使政局和社会趋于稳定.未来几年,军人政权新老领导人交替、冷战结束后来自外部民主思潮的压力、国内民族矛盾的加剧和经济问题将考验军人政权,并影响缅甸的政治发展.

Various factors such as the economic devel-opment level of Myanmar,historical and cultural traditions,complicated ethnic relations,etc.,have provided asocial base for the military regime of that country to prolong its rule. The centralization and unity of the militarygroup and the improvement of people's livelihood in recent years made it possible to stabilize political and socialorder. In the next few years,transition of power from the old to the younger leadership of the military government,pressures of democratic ideas from the outside after the end of the Cold War,intensification of ethnic conflicts in-side the country and the economic issue,- all these and other problems will be seen as a test of the militaryregime and will exert influences on Myanmar's political development.