多因素前瞻研究中归因危险度Logistic模型估计——启东县肝病高危人群14年前瞻资料分析

LOGISTIC MODEL ESTIMATION OF THE POPULATION ATTRIBUTABLE RISK FOR MULTIPLE FACTORS IN PROSPECTIVE STUDY

我们应用非条件Logistic模型对启东县肝病高危人群14年前瞻资料进行肝病危险因素的筛选和人群归因危险度估计;现报道如下。

This paper presents an approach for estimating the population attributable risk(PAR) for multiple factors in prospective study by means of Logistic model. Theana1ysis of a fourteen-year prospective data of high-risk population with hepatosisreveals significant association of liver cancer incidence with sex, HBsAg, hepatosisand family history.Population attributable risk for these risk factors are derived fromthe model by changing actual variable values to target values. Summary populationattributable risk for all four of these factors is 84.77%. These results provide evidencefrom which the preventive strategy is based.