云南省农村乡镇地震灾害房屋损失评估

THE HOUSING LOSS ASSESSMENT OF RURAL VILLAGES CAUSED BY EARTHQUAKE DISASTER IN YUNNAN PROVINCE

根据1990—2000年20余次云南省地震的房屋损坏调查数据,建立了目前云南省农村居民最主要的4类房屋地震脆弱性模型(烈度-损失率曲线);进而利用设定地震灾害损失模拟方法,基于2002年云南省房屋状况,模拟了历史上的破坏性地震如果再次发生,将造成的云南省房屋的经济损失.误差分析表明,该模拟计算方法实用性强,对一般性地震的模拟误差在30%左右.将云南省886—2002年的398次地震依次进行了房屋经济损失模拟.结果表明,云南省年均因地震引起的经济损失约为4.1亿元,占当年云南省GDP值2232.32亿元的0.18%.由于房屋造价的上涨和农村居民人均住房面积的增加,历史上的强震一旦今天再次发生,对云南省经济的影响将远远大于当年.

Based on the assessment report of destructive housings caused by more than 20 earthquakes occurred in Yunnan Province in 1990-2004, the vulnerability models of 4 types housings of rural residents in Yunnan province are setup. The scenario earthquake disaster loss simulation model are used to simulate the housing loss if the historical earthquakes that occurred in since AD in 886 Yunnan Province reoccurs in 2002. The analysis of deviation shows the simulation deviation of the usual earthquakes is less than 30% and the method is high practicality. Meanwhile, the simulation result of 398 historical earthquakes in Yunnan Province shows that the annual economic loss caused by earthquake is about RMB 0.41 billion Yuan that is the 0.18% of GDP of Yunnan Province for the year. Because the average living area of everybody and the price of the housing increase year by year, if the historical destructive earthquake reoccurs in today, the loss of Yunnan Province will be greater than in those years. The government of Yunnan Province must pay more attention to the improving capability for disaster prevention and reduction in rural areas.