荆江河段洪水过程云系关键影响区卫星亮温T_(BB)相关场特征分析

Confirmation and Identification of Key Area over Upper Reaches of Jingjiang Region in Weather Prediction

尝试使用多种资料寻找对荆江河段洪水过程具有指示意义的天气预报关键区。首先应用1998年7月GMSTBB资料以及同时段NCEP日平均风场资料,对1998年长江大洪水第二阶段致洪暴雨期荆江河段及其周围地区天气形势进行了个例诊断分析。在分析中结合相关系数计算法,并对相关数据进行滤波处理,注意到:荆江河段上游存在着对该地区天气预报有指示意义的预报关键区(25°N附近,105°E-110°E)。应用上述诊断方法对20世纪80年代以来近20年的GMSTBB资料以及1960年以来近40年的中国600个站月平均降水资料做了进一步的诊断分析,从气候角度进一步证实了该关键区的存在。

The purpose of the paper is to search a key region on precipitation-prediction during flood along Jingjiang reach in term of multiform data. Based on GMS TBB data and NCEP daily wind field data in July, the weather background over J ingjiang region and its neighbor area was diagnosed during the second period of heavy rainfall in 1998, and it was found that there exists a key area （25°N about, 105°E - 110°E） over the upper reaches of Jingjiang region in which the weather change can be inspected by using correlation coefficient method and filter analysis. To verify the existence of the key area from the opinion of climatology, the approximately 20 -years GMS Tbg data since 1980s and about 40-years monthly mean precipitations in 600 stations of China since 1960s were analyzed by following the same methods above.